1961～2010年黄河三角洲湿地区年平均气温和年降水量变化特征

Change Characteristics of Average Annual Temperature and Annual Precipitation in Costal Wetland Region of the Yellow River Delta from 1961 to 2010

利用中国地面气候资料日值数据集逐日气温和降水量插值数据,采用线性趋势分析、滑动距平和Mann-Kendall突变检测方法,研究黄河三角洲湿地区1961~2010年间的年平均气温和年降水量变化特征和趋势。结果表明,1961~2010年期间,黄河三角洲滨海湿地区年平均气温累计上升1.85℃,倾向率为0.037℃/a;年平均气温在1993年发生突变,研究区进入显著升温期;研究区年降水量累计下降121.42 mm,占同期年降水量的19.9%,降水主要集中于夏季;强降水日数和最大连续无降水日数显著减少,但极端降水频率与强度总体上保持稳定。1961~2010年期间,黄河三角洲湿地区气候以年平均气温升高、年降水量减少为主要特征;人类活动导致的湿地下垫面变化是其重要的驱动因素;暖干化气候已经成为影响区域生态安全的主要因素。

Based on interpolation data of daily temperature and precipitation from Daily Dataset of Chinese Terrestrial Climate Data, the general change characteristics of the average annual temperature and annual precipitation during 1961-2010 in costal wetland region of the Yellow River Delta were analyzed with the methods of linear trend analysis, slip anomaly analysis and Mann-Kendall test. The results showed that the average annual temperature increased 1.85 ℃ for 50 years and its linear trend rate reached 0.037 ℃/yr. The annual average temperature changed abruptly in 1993 and then a significant warming period was coming. The accumulated reduction of precipitation reached 121.42 mm for 50 years, which mainly occurred in summer, accounted for 19.9% of average annual precipitation. The days of heavy rainfall and maximum number of days for continues drought decreased significantly, while the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation kept a stable level. The warming and drought trend with characteristics of temperature rising in winter and drought in summer was obvious in costal wetland region of the Yellow River Delta. The underlying surface change resulting from human activities was an important driving factor. The warming and drying climate has become one of the predominant factors for the regional ecological environment safety.