货物贸易、服务贸易与二、三产业间劳动生产率差异——基于平滑转换回归模型(STR)的实证分析

Trade in Goods,Trade in Services and Difference of Labor Productivity between the Second and Third Industry:Based on the Empirical Analysis of STR Model

后工业化时期的到来,使服务业在国民生产总值中越来越占据着举足轻重的地位。其效率的高低在新常态经济下显得尤为重要。从发达国家经验来看,第二产业与第三产业的劳动生产率存在着明显的趋同趋势。而我国第三产业和第二产业的劳动生产率比值近几年一直在0.6左右,即相对于第二产业来说,服务业的劳动生产率偏低。第二产业与第三产业在最终产品形态上存在的明显差异直接导致了货物贸易和服务贸易的不同,这种不同是否会是第二产业与第三产业劳动生产率差异产生的原因之一?本文在建立李嘉图连续统理论模型基础上,利用平滑转换回归模型来对上述问题进行检验和阐释。研究结果表明,货物贸易差额、服务贸易差额均在不同程度上对第二产业与第三产业劳动生产率差异产生了影响。服务业可贸易程度的提高、服务贸易长期逆差现象的改善对于服务业劳动生产率的提升具有深远意义。

With the arrival of post-industrial period,the service industry is occupying a more and more pivotal position.And its efficiency is particularly important in the new normal economy.From the experience of developed countries,it can be seen that the labor productivity of service industry shows a trend of convergence with the second industry＇s.But for our country,the labor productivity of service industry to the second industry＇s ratio has been 0.6 in recent years,and namely the labor productivity of the service industry is lower with respect to the the second industry＇s.The obvious differences of final products＇ form between the two industries＇ can directly lead to the differences between goods trade and services trade,and whether these differences will be one of the reasons that can cause the difference of labor productivity between the second and third industry？Based on the Ricardo continuum theory model,this work uses the STR model to examine and explain the problem above.The results show that both the balance of goods trade and that of services trade have influnce on the differences of labor productivities between the second and third industry in various degrees.So raising the level of services tradability and improving the long-termdeficit in services trade have profound significance.