房地产价格对城镇居民旅游消费的影响研究——基于动态面板数据的分析

Impact of House Prices on the Urban Residents' Tourism Consumption:An Analysis Based on Dynamic Panel Data

近年来,房价对居民消费的影响问题备受关注。文章从住房的双重属性出发,将居民未来收入预期和旅游消费习惯等因素融入到理论和实证分析,探索我国现阶段房地产价格与居民旅游消费关系的规律性。运用动态面板系统广义矩估计(SYS-GMM)方法,对我国35个大中城市2001—2010年相关数据进行分析,得到具有一定稳健性的结论:房价与旅游消费之间存在正U形关系,即房价变化对旅游消费同时具有财富效应和挤出效应,总体表现为财富效应;房价与旅游消费的关系受到外部因素的调节,适当宽松的信贷环境将有利于财富效应的释放;房价对旅游消费的作用存在区域差异,东部城市表现出强于中部城市的财富效应,而西部城市总体效应不稳定。

Recently, house prices have become one of the core macroeconomic issues in China.Monetary authorities and economists show great interest in the price fluctuations of real estate. Despite earlier studies on the impact of housing prices on residents consumption, a consensus among scholars has not yet been reached. There are four reasons for this situation： Firstly, as housing has the dual features of both investment products and consumer goods, the impact of house prices on consumption works through both wealth effects and crowding-out effects, so that the final net effect depends on the relative power of these two effects. Secondly, the wealth effect and the collateral effect of housing price on consumption are also influenced by interest rates, credit constraints, and many other macroeconomic elements. Thirdly, it is hard to reach a conclusive outcome because of the definition of the variables, the selection of the proxy variables, and the heterogeneity of the sample. And finally, the limitations of the research methods, such as the sample size of time series analysis, and the sampling variance of microscopic survey data, will also affect the conclusions. Therefore, when interpreting the effect of housing prices on urban residents tourism consumption, it is necessary to take these factors into account.Considering the dual attributes of housing, consumption habits, borrowing constraints, uncertainty,and other related variables, this paper presents a dynamic panel model to test the effect of the housing price on urban residents tourism consumption in China. An empirical analysis is made by the panel data system GMM estimation on account of the 35 large and medium-sized cities of China. The results show that the relationship curve between house price and tourism consumption is U- shaped, which means that fluctuations of house prices have both a wealth effect and a crowding- out effect on the tourism consumption. Generally speaking, the wealth effect is greater than the crowding-out effect. It is worth noting that this relationship is moderated by credit constraints; with the improvement of the credit system, the crowding-out effect will be weakened. In addition, the relative effect of house prices appears to be different in the eastern, middle and western cities. The positive effect of house prices on the tourism consumption is stable in the middle and eastern cities, while the effect in eastern cities is greater than that in the central cities. Robustness of our conclusions is tested by removing the maximum and minimum value of the house price, and by removing one fifth of the cities randomly.The main contributions of this paper are the following. Firstly, through the theoretical and empirical analysis, this paper is able to enrich current studies about the effect of housing prices on different types of consumption. Secondly, this study will help to improve the existing research on tourism demand by taking into account the role of future income expectations. Thirdly, the consideration of tourist consumption habits in our theoretical model will enrich existing studies on urban residents＇ tourism consumption.