现金股利支付率优化研究——基于面板门限回归模型

The Optimization of Dividend Payout Ratio Based upon Panel Threshold Regression Paradigm

以2010～2014年创业板、2005～2014年中小板和2003～2014年沪市A股主板上市公司为样本,通过面板门限回归分析,实证研究了创业板、中小板和沪市A股主板上市公司现金股利支付率与公司价值的关系,发现:创业板上市公司使公司价值最大化的现金股利支付率小于等于13.86%;中小板上市公司现金股利支付率与公司价值之间呈现倒U型关系,使公司价值最大化的现金股利支付率为23.9%;沪市A股主板上市公司现金股利支付率与公司价值间也存在倒U型关系,使公司价值最大化的现金股利支付率为51.07%。使上市公司价值最大化的现金股利支付率,从创业板、中小板到沪市A股主板,呈现从低到高的趋势,体现了企业生命周期特征。

Based on the data of listed companies from innovation board over the period from 2010 to 2014, small and medium board over the period from 2005 to 2014, Shanghai exchange main board over the period from 2003 to 2014, by means of panel threshold regression, the empirical study on the dividend payout ratio maximizing the firm value for different boards mentioned above has been made. The results show that the dividend payout ratio maximizing the firm value for listed companies of innovation board is no more than 13.86%, that the dividend payout ratio has an inverted U curve relationship with the firm value and is 23.9% which can maximize the firm value for small and medium board, that an inverted U curve relationship with the firm value still exists and the dividend payout ratio maximizing the firm value is 51.07% for Shanghai exchange main board listed companies. The increasing trend of the dividend payout ratio maximizing the firm value is embodied in above data from innovation board to main board, so the dividend payout ratio maximizing the firm value has the life-cycle characteristics.