英镑对美元汇率走势浅析

Brief analysis on GBP to USD exchange rate

文章通过展示美元指数与英镑对美元汇率的长周期规律，预期2017年有可能成为美元的长期顶部以及英镑长期底部。此后针对短期内的风险事件——英国退欧公投，分析了可能的结局以及对英镑汇率的影响：认为英国退欧的可能性较低，退欧公投过后影响英镑汇率的重要因素还是英美两国的货币政策，具体而言就是英国的加息路径。英国有望在2017年首次加息，综合考虑到美元见顶、全球通货膨胀回升、英美利差缩窄等可能情形，推测英镑将触底，并进入上升周期。

The article analyzes the long-term trend of USD index and GBP to USD exchange rate. It forecasts that USD may reach its long-term top and GBP may see its long-term bottom in 2017. In view of short-term risk event--Brexit referendum, the article analyzes the possible result and its impacts on GBP exchange rate. While it would not appear possible for UK to exit from the EU, the most important factor affecting GBP exchange rate after Brexit referendum would be the monetary policy in the UK and the US. Since the UK may start to raise interest rate in 2017, USD may reach its peak level, global inflation rate may rebound and interest rate spread between the UK and the US may be narrowed, GBP will hit its bottom level and enter an upward cycle.