变异系数加权的组合赋权模型及科技评价实证

A combination empowerment model based on variation coefficient weighted and its empirical study of S&T evaluation

通过R聚类剔除反映信息重复的指标,利用因子分析遴选对科技评价影响较大的指标,构建了能够反映科学发展观内涵的科技评价指标体系。在此基础上,利用变异系数对主观G1权重、客观余弦夹角权重进行组合加权,建立了基于变异系数加权的组合赋权模型,并对中国14个典型的省份科技评价数据进行了实证。创新与特色:一是通过变异系数对主观G1权重、客观余弦夹角权重进行加权,构建了变异系数加权后组合权重最大的目标函数,进而确定了主、客观权重的组合系数θ_1、θ_2,反映了组合赋权中主、客观权重分布变异性越大、权重越大的赋权思路。弥补了现有组合赋权中主、客观权系数相等,无法有效反映专家知识经验和客观数据差异的不足。二是实证研究表明:科技投入不足是制约江西、广西两省科技发展较差的主要因素;科技对经济与社会的影响偏弱是制约四川省科技发展的关键因素;科技产出不足是制约黑龙江、山东、河南三省科技发展的瓶颈因素。

The science and technology（ ST） evaluating index system which may implicate the connotation of scientific development view is established in this paper by using R cluster analysis to delete the indicators which reflect repeated information,and using factor analysis to screen the indicators with the highest information content. On this basis,by combining subjective G1 weights with objective angle cosine weights utilizing variation coefficient,the paper establishes a combination empowerment model based on variation coefficient weighted,and then carries out an empirical study of 14 typical provinces of China. The special and contributions of this paper lie on two aspects. Firstly,by combining subjective G1 weights with objective angle cosine weights utilizing variation coefficient,the maximum objective function of combination weighting has been established. Then,the combination coefficient θ_1 of subjective G1 weights and combination coefficient θ_2 of objective angle cosine weights can be calculated. At the same time,the empowering ideas that the bigger of distribution variability between subjective weighting and objective weighting,the greater the combination weight is reflected. Thus,the right time to make up existing combination empowerment cannot effectively reflect the difference between expert knowledge and objective data,because subjective weighting coefficient θ1 are equal to objective weighting coefficient θ2. Secondly,an empirical result show that the key factors of restricting Jiangxi and Guangxi ST development is insufficient ST input; the critical factor of constraining Sichuan ST development is weak in ST＇s influence on the economics and the society; the bottleneck element of restricting Heilongjiang,Shandong and Henan ST development is insufficient ST output.