不同工艺制烯烃竞争力分析

Competitiveness analysis of different olefin processes

为了理性分析不同原料制烯烃项目的盈利能力,评估其投资风险,文中阐述了目前烯烃工业发展现状,测算了不同油价体系下石脑油蒸汽裂解制烯烃的出厂价格,及对应价格体系下煤制烯烃、甲醇制烯烃及丙烷脱氢所能承受的原料价格。根据测算结果分析:只有当国际油价高于70美元/桶,煤制烯烃相对于石脑油路线制烯烃项目具有较强的盈利能力;丙烷脱氢制烯烃相对于煤制烯烃盈利性较好,随着油价提高,竞争力逐渐减弱,未来抢占低成本丙烷原料将是项目成败的关键;而甲醇制烯烃项目竞争力则主要取决于当时的甲醇价格水平,既受制于原油价格也受制于国内煤炭价格。

In order to rationally analyze the profitability of different raw materials to olefins and evaluate its investment risk,the present development of olefin industry was elaborated. The ex-factory prices of naphtha steam cracking to olefin under different oil prices were calculated,and the bearable raw material prices of coal to olefin,MTO,propane dehydrogenation to olefin under corresponding price systems were also calculated. The results show that the coal to olefin has great profitability compared with naphtha cracking to olefin if the international oil price is higher than 70 dollars / bbl. The propane dehydrogenation is better than the coal to olefin, however, the competitiveness gradually decreases with the oil price increase,and thus the lower dimethylmethane cost is the key factor for the project. The competitiveness of MTO is depended on the methanol price,which is subjected to the oil and coal prices.