基于核密度估计的需要系数求取方法

A Method of Calculating Demand Coefficient Based on Kernel Density Estimation

针对许多小区选择的配电变压器容量过大、求取计算负荷时只是将间断的测量数据相加得出等问题,采用核密度估计拟合住宅负荷,选取合适的窗宽将测量得到的数据拟合成了一条不间断的曲线,模拟单户住宅全天的负荷使用情况,根据拟合曲线得到不同户数的计算负荷,最后计算出相应的需要系数表。应用此表计算得出的住宅小区计算负荷,与小区全年的最大负荷较为近似。核密度估计可以自主选择适当的窗宽,在拟合曲线时只考虑合适范围内的数据,从而保证了住户负荷的时域性。应用得到的需要系数表可用于参考选择配电变压器容量。

In order to solve such problems as too large distribution transformer capacity in many residential districts and sum of intermittently measured data only as the calculated load, this paper, based on kernel density estimation, fits a continuous curve of residential load from the measured data according to the suitable window width, simulates the all-day load of one-family dwelling, gains the calculated load of different dwellings with reference to the fitted curve, and finally calculates the table of demand coefficient. The calculated load of residential districts,which is calculated on the basis of the table mentioned above, is similar to the annual maximum load of residents. Suitable window width can be selected freely for kernel density estimation, and data within a suitable range only will be considered during curve fitting, for the purpose of ensuring time domain of dwelling load. Distribution transformer capacity can be selected with reference to the demand coefficient table.