中国未来经济增长新亮点:从“引进来”到“走出去”——来自PVAR模型的新证据

The New Spotlight of China's Future Economic Growth:From Bringing in to Going out ——The Evidence of PVAR Model

利用中国各行业2004-2011年的数据,采用PVAR模型,研究FDI、对外直接投资与经济增长之间的互动关系,捕捉各变量在面对冲击时的长短期效应。结果表明:对外直接投资对经济增长的推动效应显著优于FDI;FDI与对外直接投资存在一定的互补关系,但不够显著;对外直接投资与经济增长相互间的短期效应显著优于长期效应,对外直接投资与FDI相互间的长短期效应是非对称的,无论是长期还是短期,FDI与经济增长并非存在显著的长期互动关系。

Based on PVAR model and China＇s industry data from 2004 to 2011, this paper studies the relations among FDI, outward foreign direct investment and economic growth, capturing the interaction between all the variables in the short run and in the long run. The conclusion shows that the promoting effect of outward foreign direct investment on economic growth is significantly better than that of FDI on economic growth. There is a complementary relation between FDI and outward foreign direct investment, but not significant. The short-term effect between the outward foreign direct investment and the economic growth is better than the long-term effect. The short-term effect and the long-term effect of FDI and outward foreign direct investment are asymmetric. Whether short-term or long-term, the interaction between FDI and economic growth is not significant.