冬小麦结实率估算的模型研究

Model for Estimating Seed-setting Rate of Winter Wheat

为了定量分析冬小麦开花结实规律,本研究以‘济麦22’、‘泰农18’和‘鲁原502’为材料,于2013—2014年冬小麦生长季内开展了品种与施氮试验。通过分析不同穗型冬小麦可育小花数、开花量及开花结实率之间的内在关系,以及单穗日开花量和日开花结实率与花后GDD之间的定量关系,构建了冬小麦结实率估算模型。经独立试验资料检验,冬小麦结实率(SR)实测值与模拟值的RMSE、da和R2分别为1.092%,0.934%和0.617。其中,r=0.785(r0.05,7=0.666),达P<0.05显著水平。说明实测值与模拟值的吻合程度较好。所建模型可较好地模拟不同穗型品种冬小麦的开花结实率。

In order to quantitatively analyze the laws of flowering and seed-setting of winter wheat,‘Jimai 22＇,‘Tainong 18＇and‘Luyuan 502＇were used as materials,the variety and nitrogen application experiments werecarried out in 2013-2014 winter wheat growing reason.An estimating model of seed-setting rate of winterwheat was built by analyzing the relationship among the fertile florets,flowering number and seed-setting,andthe quantitative relationship between the average single daily flower number and the single daily seed-settingrate for single spike and the growth degree days after anthesis of different spike types of winter wheat.By theindependent experiment data test,the root mean squared error（RMSE）,the mean absolute error（da） and thedetermined coefficient（R2） between simulated and measured values of seed-setting rate（SR） in winter wheatwere 1.092%,0.934%,and 0.617,respectively.The correlation coefficient between observation and simulationin the geometrical parameter was 0.785（r0.05,7=0.666）,reached a significant level（P〈0.05）,which indicatedthat the simulated values were consistent well with the measured ones.Therefore,the model could simulate seed-setting rate of different spike types of winter wheat.