基于GIS的川中丘陵区干旱风险区划研究——以四川遂宁市为例

Drought Risk Zoning of Hilly Area in Central Sichuan Province Based on GIS——A Case Study of Suining,Sichuan

以遂宁市所辖船山、射洪、蓬溪3个站点及周边市县共17个气象台站1959—2010年的逐日气温、降水资料以及地方经济、人口、耕地以及近10年的灾情普查等资料为基础,分析对旱灾形成有影响的气候、地理及社会经济因素,运用加权综合法与风险指数法建立相关评估模型,利用GIS完成区划图的制作。区划结果表明：遂宁地区的干旱灾害风险度指数在0.42~1.24之间,市内干旱风险呈现北高南低的特点,干旱风险较高的区域主要集中在射洪大部、蓬溪中部—船山东部2个区域,干旱风险较低的地区主要集中在涪江、郪江、琼江、芝溪河、梓江以及赤城湖等主要江河、水库周边。根据评估结果及遂宁实际,提出3条抗旱减灾对策建议,以期为丘陵地区进一步提升抗旱减灾能力提供有益的参考。

Based on daily air temperature and precipitation data from 1959 to 2010,as well as the data of localeconomy,population,farmland and the recent 10 years＇ disaster survey,the authors analyzed the influence ofclimate,geography and social economy on forming drought.By adopting weighted composite method and riskindex method,the authors established a correlation evaluation model and finished the zoning map by makinguse of GIS.The zoning results suggested that：the drought risk index of Suining City was 0.42-1.24,the droughtrisk of the north part was higher than that of the south part.The high risk parts included most part of Shehongand central Pengxi to eastern Chuanshan.And the low risk parts were around major rivers and reservoirs likeFujiang River,Qijiang River,Qiongjiang River,Zhixihe River,Zijiang River and Chichenghu Lake.Accordingto the evaluation results and the real situation in Suining City,the authors put forward three countermeasuresfor upgrading the drought resistance and disaster reduction capability in hilly areas.