基于系统动力学的我国融资结构仿真研究

Simulation of financing structure based on system dynamics

提高直接融资比重是我国金融改革与社会融资结构完善的目标之一,1996年央行提出"扩大直接融资规模",但这一目标至今仍未实现,而且出现了商业银行借助资本市场融资,导致间接融资规模不断提高的现象.本文首先对于融资结构的研究进行了回顾,从系统科学的角度出发,通过分析、归纳出影响融资结构的各经济因素,构建了我国融资结构的系统动力学模型,通过实证仿真验证了该模型的有效性.通过模拟不同的融资结构,分析了各主要影响因素的变化情况,为完善融资结构提出相关建议.

To raise the proportion of direct financing is one of goals of the reform of financial system and development of social financing mechanism in our country. The policy of expanding the scale of social financing was established in 1996. But the goal hasn＇t been achieved until now. It is the fact that the commercial banks have access of financing from capital market to lead to the expansion of the scale of indirect financing. In this paper, based on the reviews of literatures on direct financing structure and the view of system science, we draw a conclusion of factors that affect the financing structure and set up a system dynamics model of financing structure. And we check the validity of the model by comparing the model results to the real. Finally, we set up a series of simulation to analyse the changes of result under different assumptions and give some advices on how to improve the financing structure.