干旱分析技术的研究进展

Research Progress on Drought Analysis Technologies

干旱分析是全面认识干旱及其影响的有效途径,是旱灾风险评估和管理的基础,可为旱灾风险决策提供科学依据。基于此,以旱灾系统为研究对象,从旱灾系统各子系统的相互作用出发,提出了由14类分析技术组成的干旱分析技术体系,其中的关键技术是干旱区划、致灾因子危险性分析、旱灾脆弱性分析和抗旱能力分析。系统综述了这14类分析技术的研究现状,指出了从致灾因子、承灾体、防灾减灾措施、孕灾环境的单方面研究逐步过渡到对它们之间的相互作用和关系的研究和多种干旱分析技术的复合研究,从定性分析过渡到定量分析,从统计分析过渡到物理成因解析的研究发展趋势。

As the foundation of drought disaster risk assessment and management,drought analysis is one of the effective ways for comprehensive understanding of drought and its effects,which can provide scientific basis for risk decision. In this paper,taking drought disaster system as the research object,on the basis of the interaction of all subsystems of drought disaster,a drought analysis technological system were put forward which was consisted of 14 kinds of analysis technologies,and the key of the system was the drought zonation,the hazard analysis of disaster-causing factors,the vulnerability analysis of drought and the analysis of drought resistance capacity. The present research situation of 14 kinds of analysis technologies was systematically summarized,the research trend was pointed out that gradually developed from the unilateral investigation on the disaster-causing factors,the disaster-affected bodies,the measures of disaster prevention and mitigation and the disaster-forming environment to the multi-aspect investigations on the relationships and the interaction among the factors,from the qualitative analysis to the quantitative analysis,from the statistical analysis to the analysis of physical genesis.