张力腿平台系泊风险评估方法研究

Risk assessment of mooring for tension leg platform

文章结合模糊综合评判法、层次分析法以及概率论提出了一种风险分析的评估方法,识别了系泊中的风险因素,建立完善了相应的风险评估指标体系,并将其应用于设计中或已服役作业的张力腿平台系泊风险评估。将不同风险评估结果视为风险的总体的随机样本,用概率论和置信区间对风险评估结果进行置信度评价。克服了单一评价方案主观性太强的弱点,使评价更具有客观性和可信性。经过分析和计算实例表明,该系泊风险评估方法是适用和有效的。利用获取的评价结果,识别设计或已建成服役的张力腿平台系泊风险指数高的风险因素,并采取有效措施,加强培训及时检修设备,以防止意外的发生。结合一型设计中的张力腿平台,应用文中提出的数值风险评估模型对该平台的系泊系统进行了风险评估。结果表明该方法可以对张力腿平台的系泊风险评估中的主观因素进行客观有效的评估。并可以推广应用于其他海上结构物的风险评估问题中。

Based on the Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method, Analytic Hierarchy Process（AHP） and Probability Theory, this paper put forward an analysis method of risk assessment, established the corresponding assessment criteria system, and applied to the design or were delivered of Tension Leg Platform（TLP） mooring risk assessment. Analysis and calculation example show that the risk assessment method for mooring is applicable and effective. Making use of the risk assessment result, identify the major risk factors of TLP which is designed or in service, and take effective measures to strengthen the training and maintain the equipment in time, could prevent the occurrence of accidents. Combined with a TLP in design, apply the numerical risk assessment model was applied to the platform of risk assessment for mooring system.The results show that this method can be objectively and effectively used to assess the subjective factors in the mooring risk assessment of TLP. And it can be applied in the risk assessment of other offshore structures.