基于人粮关系的成都市耕地资源人口承载力研究

Evaluation on Population Carrying Capacity of Cultivated Land Based on Human-grain Relationship in Chengdu

随着城镇化进程加快,成都市耕地资源现状发生显著变化,粮食安全问题日益凸显.结合成都市2003-2012年耕地资源、粮食与人口动态变化特点,分析其现实耕地资源生产潜力和人口承载力;以2016-2020年为目标年,运用GM(1,1)灰色系统预测模型对耕地面积、粮食单产、人口等的发展趋势进行预测;并结合温饱型、小康型与富裕型三种不同的粮食消费标准对预测年份内耕地资源的人口承载力状况进行分析.最后提出了提高人口承载力、实现耕地资源可持续发展的对策与措施.

With the acceleration of urbanization process,the situation of cultivated land resources in Chengdu city has changed significantly,and the food security has become increasingly prominent. Combined with the characteristics of the dynamic changes of the actual cultivated land resources,grain and population in 2003 ~ 2012 in Chengdu,this paper analyzes the productive potential of cultivated land resources and population carrying capacity of land resources,aiming at 2016 ~ 2020,using GM（ 1,1） grey system forecasting model to predict the development tendency of cultivated land area,per unit area yield of grain and population,etc. According to the three consumption levels of saturated,comparatively well- off and surplus,the population supporting capacity of land resources in forecasted years have been discussed. Finally,some countermeasures are put forward to enhance the population supporting capacity of land resources and achieve the sustainable development of cultivated land resources.