基于VIC模型的黄河上游未来径流变化分析

Runoff change in upper reach of Yellow River under future climate change based on VIC model

为研究变化环境下黄河上游流域降水、气温与径流的变化特征,采用Delta方法对大气环流模式（GCMs）中BCC-CSM1.1模式数据进行降尺度处理,建立未来时期的气候变化情景,应用VIC分布式水文模型,对流域未来径流过程进行预估。结果表明,与基准期（1971—2010年）相比,三种情景下黄河上游未来（2011—2050年）多年平均降水增加4.31%-5.74%;多年平均最高气温和最低气温升高1.04-1.61℃,其中冬季升温最为明显;多年平均径流量分别增加2.65%、2.66%和8.07%,且增加幅度随时间推移逐渐减小,长期呈下降趋势;就年内分配来看,径流在冬季有所增加,夏季略有减少。

This study investigated the variations in precipitation, temperature and runoff in the upper Yellow river under the changing environment. A Delta method was used to downscale the BCC-CSM1.1 model data of Global Climate Models（GCMs） to establish future climate scenarios, and a VIC distributed hydrological model to simulate the future runoff process. The results show that the long-term mean annual precipitation will increase by 4.31% to 5.74% under different climate scenarios in the next 40 years（2011-2050） compared with the baseline period（1971-2010）. And the long-term mean maximum and minimum temperature will increase by 1.04 ℃ to 1.61 ℃ and the increases in winter will be more distinct than in the other seasons. Under three different scenarios, the increase in annual runoff will be 2.65%, 2.66% and 8.07% respectively, but the increasing rate shows a decreasing trend. Seasonally, winter runoff will increase while summer runoff decrease.