房地产泡沫测度及区域间联动与传染

Measurement of Housing Bubble and its Co-movement and Spatial Contagion

本文运用市场供求法测度2000--2011年中国59个大中城市房地产泡沫，并建立空间动态面板模型研究房地产泡沫的区域间联动和空间传染效应。结果表明：各城市房地产泡沫爆发时点不完全一致，二三线城市的泡沫较为突出且波动较大；房地产泡沫存在区域间联动及空间传染效应，联动效应主要发生在地理邻近的城市之间，传染效应中经济相似性和信贷市场相似性的作用大于地理邻近性。

This paper estimates housing bubbles of 59 metropolises in China from 2000 to 2011 based on the market supply-demand method and studies their co-movement and contagion effects applying the spatial dynamic panel data model. The results indicate that each city＇s housing bubble outbreaks in different time; Bubbles in the second and third-tier cities are obvious and volatile; There exist co-movement and spatial contagion effects in housing bubbles. The co-movement effect mainly occurs in geographically adjacent cities. Similarities in economic and credit market conditions dominate the geographic channel for the contagion effect.