突发性石油短缺及其应急恢复的演化机理研究

Research on Evolution Mechanism of Sudden Oil Shortage and Its Emergency Recovery

通过分析突发性石油短缺典型案例,结合突发事件演化理论,研究了突发性石油短缺及其应急恢复演化的动力因素与机理。结果表明:突发性石油短缺的演化分为发生、发展、演变和终结四个阶段,短缺范围、短缺程度、短缺影响、应急恢复等演化特征主要受应急干预、致灾因素、承灾体、孕灾环境等动力因素的影响,其中应急干预贯穿整个演化过程,是突发性石油短缺演化的重要驱动力。结合中国突发性石油短缺应急体系现状,提出相关政策建议:加强资源整合和信息共享,完善应急预警机制;完善应急组织,提高应急干预效果;加快立法,规范制度,完善石油储备,建立应急准备体系。

By analyzing typical cases of sudden oil shortage and combining with emergencies evolution theory,this paper researched the power factors and evolution mechanism of sudden oil shortage and its emergency recovery. The results showed that： The evolution of sudden shortage was divided into four stages,including the occurrence,the development,the evolution and the end,evolution characteristic features of the shortage range,the degree of shortage,the shortage influences and emergency recovery were mainly affected by the emergency intervention,causal factors,hazard bearing body,pregnant disaster environment and other power factors. Emergency interventions were throughout evolution and it was an important driving force for the evolution of sudden oil shortage. Combining actuality of our country＇s emergency system of sudden oil shortage,recommendations policy were put forward： Strengthening resource integration and information sharing to improve forecasting and early warning mechanisms,completing emergency response organizations to improve emergency intervention effect,speeding up the legislative and standardizing institutions to improve the oil reserves and establish the emergency preparedness system.