人口流动、居住模式与地区间犯罪率差异

Domestic Immigration,Residential Status and Crime Rates

人口流动与犯罪的关系是城市化和社会管理中需要回答的基础问题,也是一个广受热议但仍存争议的公共议题。本文通过汇集和分析2010年中国地级以上306市(地州盟)检察机关数据,结合对5个省(自治区)9位公安、检察人员的访谈,发现人口流动程度与起诉率显著相关,但租住率却是批捕率的更好预测指标。由于人口流动与租住率的相关性,这可能意味着人口流动促进了高犯罪,但很大程度上是通过居住状态等因素起作用。人口流动与全部犯罪关联度高,但居住状态作为空间结构性力量,与较严重犯罪关联更紧密。本研究的启示在于,在城市问题日益重要的今天,我们应反思中国城市化进程及其意外后果,重新审视住房政策的社会政策属性,重视居住的安全防控功能和空间融合效应。

Although it is commonly perceived that immigration leads to high crime rate,this relationship is far from conclusive. This paper contributes to this line of research by exploring the case of China,a country undergoing rapid and profound urbanization. We collect and analyze the arresting and accusation data from the prosecutorial office of 306 prefectures in China,combined with interviews with 9 policemen and procurators from 5provinces. We find that domestic migration rate of different cities is significantly related to the accusation rate,while housing renting rate is a better predictor of arresting rate.These findings imply that migration may introduce crime,but mainly through residential status. Compared with the accusation cases,arresting cases indicate more grave crimes in China. It suggests that residential status plays an important role in the crime emergences and prevention. The findings call for reflections on urbanization and its unintentional consequences. Housing policy should not be considered merely in its economic sense and we should never neglect it as an important social policy instrument in crime prevention and social inclusion.