摘要
运用系统动力学方法,耦合流域社会经济要素:人口、GDP和产业构成,用统计分析的方法,解析流域社会经济–水环境–水资源的时间响应关系与作用机理,使用VENSIM_PLE软件作为工具,建立流域入湖污染负荷总量预测模型,以抚仙湖为例,定量预测分析流域污染负荷入湖量,为湖泊流域水污染防治、宏观经济调控和产业结构调整提供技术支撑。
Following system dynamic approach, connecting social economic factors, population, GDP and industrial structure of the watershed, the study analyzed the time response relationship and mechanisms of social economic-water environment-water resource of the watershed, and built a forecasting model of watershed load into lakes with VENSIM PLE. Taking FuxianLake as an example, the study proposed that the outputs could be applied to technological support for prevention of water pollution, macroeconomic regulation & control and industrial reconstructing of the watershed.
出处
《生态经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第6期179-182,共4页
Ecological Economy
基金
环保部水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项"流域社会经济结构调整及水污染综合防治中长期规划研究"(2008ZX07102-001)
关键词
系统动力学
社会经济要素
湖泊流域污染预测
system dynamic approach
key factors of social economic
forecasting of watershed pollution