基于系统动力学的高原湖泊流域污染负荷入湖总量预测的应用研究

System Dynamic Approach-Based Forecasting of Watershed Load into Lakes

运用系统动力学方法,耦合流域社会经济要素:人口、GDP和产业构成,用统计分析的方法,解析流域社会经济–水环境–水资源的时间响应关系与作用机理,使用VENSIM_PLE软件作为工具,建立流域入湖污染负荷总量预测模型,以抚仙湖为例,定量预测分析流域污染负荷入湖量,为湖泊流域水污染防治、宏观经济调控和产业结构调整提供技术支撑。

Following system dynamic approach, connecting social economic factors, population, GDP and industrial structure of the watershed, the study analyzed the time response relationship and mechanisms of social economic-water environment-water resource of the watershed, and built a forecasting model of watershed load into lakes with VENSIM PLE. Taking FuxianLake as an example, the study proposed that the outputs could be applied to technological support for prevention of water pollution, macroeconomic regulation ＆ control and industrial reconstructing of the watershed.