基于传播动力学模型的流感暴发疫情的报告标准比较

Comparison of Flu Outbreak Reporting Standards Based on Transmission Dynamics Model

目的对现行的两种流感暴发疫情报告标准进行比较评价,为流感暴发疫情的科学防控提供理论依据。方法建立无干预易感者-潜伏期-显性/隐性感染者-移出者(susceptible-exposed-infectious/asymptomaticremoved,SEIAR)模型,在此基础上结合实际情况建立有干预模型。利用两种报告标准对疫情进行模拟干预,利用疫情持续时间、累计新发病例数、累计续发病例数、累计罹患率和罹患率降低百分比来评价干预效果。结果本起疫情的基本再生数为8.2,模型模拟结果和实际情况较为类似。在符合标准1(1周内累计新发病例数为10例)时采取干预措施流感暴发疫情的干预效果优于在符合标准2(1周内累计新发病例数为30例)时进行干预的效果。结论标准1(1周内累计新发病例数为10例)较标准2(1周内累计新发病例数为30例)更有利于流感暴发疫情的科学防控。

Objective To compare the current two flu outbreak reporting standards for the purpose of better prevention and control of flu outbreaks. Methods A susceptible-exposed-infectious/asymptomatic-removed（SEIAR）model without interventions was set up first,followed by a model with interventions based on real situation.Simulated interventions were developed based on the two reporting standards,and evaluated by estimated duration of outbreaks,cumulative new cases,cumulative morbidity rates,decline in percentage of morbidity rates,and cumulative secondary cases.Results The basic reproductive number of the outbreak was estimated as 8.2.The simulation produced similar results as the real situation.The effect of interventions based on reporting standard one（10accumulated new cases in a week）was better than that of interventions based on reporting standard two（30accumulated new cases in a week）.Conclusion The reporting standard one（10accumulated new cases in a week）is more effective for prevention and control of flu outbreaks.