区域交通运输业碳排放变化的驱动因素分解分析

Driving Factor Decomposition Analysis of Carbon Emissions for Regional Transportation

为识别区域交通运输业碳排放驱动因素并测算其贡献率,作者将影响因素分为规模效应、结构效应和技术效应三方面。综合考虑经济产出、人口规模、运输结构、运输强度及能源效率等因素对区域交通运输业碳排放的影响,基于扩展的Kaya恒等式建立因素分解模型,应用对数平均迪氏分解法(LMDI)对区域交通运输业碳排放进行因素分解。研究结果表明:经济产出效应对区域交通运输业碳排放的贡献率最大,达到96.05%,其他各影响因素按贡献率绝对值大小依次是,运输结构效应为48.59%,运输强度效应为-30.46%,能耗效率效应为-15.88%,人口规模效应为1.59%。研究认为,目前交通运输业碳减排的重点在于调整运输结构、提高能耗效率和降低运输强度。针对实证结果,作者提出了相应的节能减排建议。

To identify the carbon emission driving factors of regional transportation and measure their corresponding contributions,this paper classified the factors into three kind effects, that is scale effect,structure effect and technique effect.A decomposition model based on the extended Kaya identity was established, and the impact of the economic scale, population size, transport structure, transport intensity and energy efficiency on carbon emission were examined in detail with the log mean decompostion index（LMDI）method. Empirical results demonstrated that the economic scale effect, whose contribution ratio reached 96.05%, played a dominant role in increasing carbon emission of regional transportation, followed by the transport structure effect, 48.59%, transport intensity effect,-30.46%, the energy efficiency effect,-15.88%, the population size effect,1.59%. The study suggests that the current policies about energy-saving and emission- reduction of transportation industry should focus on regulating transport structure, improving energy efficiency and reducing transport intensity. Appropriate energy conservation policy recommendations were put forward according the empirical results.