考虑连锁故障的广东电网抗毁性分析

Analysis on Invulnerability of Guangdong Power Grid Considering Cascading Failure

为研究极端天气条件下的复杂电网抗毁性,构建计及台风及衍生灾害共同作用的电网节点停运概率模型,并分析了一种基于复杂网络理论的连锁故障模型。结合极端天气导致的电网节点故障和连锁故障过程中的节点过负荷故障,采用连锁故障模拟仿真的方法对复杂电网的抗毁性进行分析。以广东电网为例,首先分析了广东电网具有的小世界性是导致电网抗毁性降低的内在原因,随后的连锁故障仿真结果充分说明了电网小世界性的加深对电网抗毁性的恶化起到了加剧作用;最后,指出极端天气扩大了连锁故障的传播范围,严重地降低了电网的抗毁性。

In order to study invulnerability of complex power grid under extreme weather condition,an outage probability model for power grid node considering typhoon and its derivative disasters is constructed and a kind of cascading failure model based on complex network theory is analyzed. Combining fault of the power grid node caused by extreme weather and overload fault of the node in process of cascading failure,a method of simulating cascading failure is used for analyzing invulnerability of the complex power grid. Taking Guangdong power grid for an example,this paper firstly points out that the internal reason for causing reduction of invulnerability of the power grid is its small world property and the following simulating result of cascading failure fully indicates that deepening of small world property of the power grid intensifies deterioration of invulnerability.Finally,it points out that the extreme weather expands propagation range of cascading failure and seriously reduce invulnerability of the power grid.