天津市用水结构演变及其影响因素分析

Analysis of Water Utilization Structure in Tianjin and Its Influencing Factors

基于2004~2013年天津市农业、工业、生活、生态及总用水量数据,分析了各类型用水量的变化态势及其影响因素,采用信息熵的方法分析了用水结构的演变过程,并通过灰色关联法识别出影响用水结构演变的主要影响因素。结果表明,天津市总用水量呈微增趋势;农业用水量为波浪式下降趋势;以2008年为界,工业用水出现先减少后增加的态势;生活用水和生态用水总体上均呈增加趋势;2004~2013年,天津市用水结构的信息熵和均衡度均于2010年达到峰值,用水结构发展已较为成熟,系统内部处于较为均衡的状态,单一因素的影响力逐渐减弱;经济社会发展因素对用水结构的演变具有较强的影响,其中农村用电量、耕地面积、园林绿地面积、农业总产值、万元工业产值用水量、轻工业产值等10个影响因素与天津市用水结构呈强关联。

Based on the agricultural,industrial,domestic and ecological water consumption data of Tianjin from 2004 to 2013,the situation and influencing factors of water consumption were analyzed.The evolution law and driving factors of water utilization structure was depicted by information entropy and grey correlation respectively.The results show that the total water consumption in Tianjin has increased slightly;the agricultural water reduced with fluctuation;taking 2008 as the boundary,the industrial water reduced first and then increased;the domestic water and ecological water increased overall;the information entropy and equilibrium degree of water utilization structure reached their peak in 2010;the water utilization structure of Tianjin tended to be mature and stable;the economic and social factors had obvious influence on water utilization structure while the main driving factors were rural electricity consumption,cultivated area,garden green area,agricultural gross output value,water consumption of ten thousand yuan industrial output value,light industry output value etc.