基于前景理论的混凝土坝施工方案群体灰靶决策方法

Group Grey Target Decision Making of Concrete Dam Construction Plan Based on Prospect Theory

鉴于混凝土坝施工方案的选择是一个多决策主体多属性多目标的模糊决策问题,考虑各决策主体对各方案的决策指标的期望灰靶对群体决策影响,结合前景理论建立一种群体灰靶决策方法,该方法以各决策者对方案的期望灰靶为基准参考,采用一致性原则对指标的前景价值优劣进行规范化处理,以是否中靶来考察方案的价值;同时根据专家期望及各决策者意见,计算各决策者的权重,然后依据决策者权重计算方案的综合前景值,由正负及大小来选择方案。实例应用结果表明,施工中采用方案s2进行施工,与实际更符合,可见该方法可行、有效。

The concrete dam optimal construction plan is an uncertain multi-attribute multi-objective multi-decisionmaker problem.Considering the impact of indicators＇ grey target attribute of scheme determined by decision-maker on group decision-making,the prospect theory is proposed to establish group grey target decision-maker method.Considering the decision-makers expecting prospect grey target of the plan as benchmark reference,the consistency principle is used to standardize the prospect value of index.The plan＇s value is inspected by hitting the bull＇s eye or not.Then,the weight of each decision-maker is obtained according to expecting value of decision-makers.The comprehensive prospect value of each plan is calculated with decision-makers weight.Finally,the plan is optimized by sorting and judging the value hit bull＇s eye or not.The method is verified by aproject case.The results show that the construction plan s2 is consistent with the actual situation.So,the proposed method is feasible and effective.