基于LMDI的中国天然气消费影响因素研究

Analysis of factors affecting China's natural gas consumption based on LMDI

运用LMDI指数分解方法对我国天然气消费影响因素进行研究,将其分解为化石能耗结构效应、非清洁能耗结构效应、能源强度效应和经济规模效应,探讨其对天然气消费增量的影响强度。研究发现,经济增长是影响我国天然气消费增长的主要因素;各省(市、区)有意识增加天然气的消费比重,调整能源结构,总体呈低碳化走势;总体来看,能源强度逐渐降低,能源效率提高是抑制天然气消费的主要因素,长远来看能进一步缓解我国天然气供需的矛盾,实现我国能源优质、清洁的开发和利用。

The LMDI was used in this paper to analyze the factors affecting the change in natural gas consumption,which was decomposed to the natural gas consumption ratio effect,non-fossil energy effect,energy intensity effect and economic total effect.By the analysis with panel data,it is found that the economy scale was main reason for growth in natural gas consumption.The energy structure is improved with the increasing consumption of natural gas consciously in each province,which lead to a trend of low carbonization.Overall,the energy intensity decreasing gradually is the main factor for inhibiting gas consumption,which can alleviate the contradictions of China＇s natural gas supply and demand to achieve quality,clean energy development and utilization in the long run.