基于MNL模型的定制公交选择研究

Study on Customized Bus Selection Based on MNL Model

文章通过定制公交出行意向调查,基于随机效用最大化理论,选择了费用、车内时间、车外时间及出行者相关属性作为效用变量,构建了包含多种交通方式选择枝的MNL模型,并借助BIOGEME软件进行参数估计,预测出定制公交的分担率。同时,通过灵敏度分析,考虑不同因素变化时所引起的定制公交选择概率的变化,为定制公交的合理运营提供理论依据。

Through the travel intention survey of customized bus,and based on random utility maximiza-tion theory,this article selected the costs,in-bus time,out-bus time and related traveler properties as the utility variables,built the MNL model including various transportation method option branches,con-ducted the parameter estimation via to BIOGEME software,and predicted the sharing rate of custom-ized bus.At the same time,through sensitivity analysis,and considering the changes of customized bus selection probability caused by the changes of different factors,it provided the theoretical basis for rea-sonable operation of customized bus.