产业集群规模及影响因素的实证研究

Empirical Research on the Scale and Influence Factors of Industrial Clusters

分析了自然资源、社会资源、政府支持程度、市场容量和外部投资等外部因素对集群规模的影响,以及资金水平、员工努力水平和风险偏好等内部因素对集群规模的影响。并对元胞自动机(Cellular Automata)的基本模型进行了扩展,结合Matlab软件设计了8个模拟试验,分别测度不同影响因素对集群规模的影响程度。结果表明,自然资源、企业风险偏好、资金水平、员工的努力程度对集群规模的影响较为显著,社会资源、市场容量、外部投资和政府支持程度对集群规模的影响不明显。在不同因素的影响下,产业集群存在一个最佳的集聚规模,整个产业集群的发展呈现出一个先升后降的倒U型趋势。

This paper analyses the internal and external factors which influence the scale of industrial clusters.The internal factors include natural resources,social resources,government support,market capacity,and external investments,while the external factors consist of capital level,diligence degree of employees,and risk preference.Based on an extended Cellular Automata model,the article designs eight simulation tests,and uses Matlab to test the influence degree of those eight factors respectively.Results of the simulation illustrate that natural resources,risk preference,capital level,and diligence degree of employees have remarkable influences on the scale of industrial clusters,while the influences of other factors are not obvious.The results also verify the existence of optimal scale of industrial clusters,and the tendency of cluster scale ascends first and descends at last,which looks like an inverse U curve.