基于多元线性回归模型的云南昭通地质灾害易发性评价

Geohazard susceptibility evaluation in Zhaotong of Yunnan based on the multivariate linear regression model

根据云南昭通地区地质灾害发育特征和孕灾环境背景,选择了地形坡度、微地貌和岩土体特征等3个与地质灾害发育最为密切的影响因子,采用多元线性回归模型确定三者的比例关系,运用Arcgis10软件统计分析和空间分析模块,实现研究区地质灾害易发性区划,结果分为高、中、低、不易发四个等级,为该地区地质灾害风险评价及防灾减灾提供指导依据。

Geohazard susceptibility evaluation is the focus of discussion and research issues of the domestic researchers. Accurate determination of the geohazard high incidence area is the basis of the geohazard risk assessment and management. Considering the characteristics of geohazard and the environment background in the study area,this article selects the terrain slope,micro-topography and rock mass characteristics as the impact factors of geohazard development. Using the multiple linear regression model to determine the proportion of the three factors,and with the statistic analysis and spatial analysis functions of Arc GIS10,the geohazard susceptibility division in the Zhaotong region is completed. The results show that the region are divided into high,medium,low,very low grades,which provides a guiding basis for the geohazard risk assessment and geohazard prevention and mitigation in this area.