气候变化对大兴安岭兴安落叶松物候期的影响

Influence of Climate Change on the Phenophase of Larix gmelinii in the Greater Khingan Mountains

物候现象是气候变化的一个重要指示器,基于物候资料分析气候变化对兴安落叶松物候的影响,对于指导林业生产具有重要意义。利用额尔古纳市农牧业气象观测站1987—2012年兴安落叶松物候观测资料和1961—2014年气候数据,采用线性倾向估计、Pearson相关系数等方法,分析了气候变化对大兴安岭林区兴安落叶松物候期的影响。结果表明:1近50多年来,研究区增温明显,气候倾向率0.34℃·(10a)-1;降水量和日照时数变化不明显。2 1987—2012年,研究区兴安落叶松花芽开放期、展叶始期、叶完全变色期和落叶末期都有所推迟,其中,叶完全变色期和落叶末期平均每10 a分别推迟17.282 d和12.144 d。生长季延长,平均生长季长度为165 d。3气温是影响兴安落叶松春季物候期的关键气象因子;气温、降水量和日照时数对叶完全变色期有不同程度的影响,而落叶末期仅对日照时数较为敏感。

Phenological phenomenon is an important indicator to climate change. Influence of climate change on the phenophase of Larix gmelinii in the Greater Khingan Mountains has a vital significance to guide forestry production. In this paper,the influence of climate change on the phenophase of Larix gmelinii in the Greater Khingan Mountains was analyzed based on the data of the phenophase of Larix gmelinii during the period of 1987- 2012 and the climate data during the period of 1961- 2014 at Eerguna City Agriculture and Animal Husbandry Meteorological Station and by using the linear trend estimation and Pearson correlation index method. Research results are as follows： 1 In recent 50 years,temperature increased significantly,climate trend rate was 0. 34 ℃ ·（ 10a）- 1,changes of precipitation and sunshine duration were not obvious; 2 during the period of 1987- 2012,phenophase dates of bud open（ BO）,first leaf unfolding（ LU）,end of leaf coloration（ LC） and end of leaf fall（ LF） of Larix gmelinii were all put off,LC and LF were delayed by 17. 282 d and 12. 144 d per 10 a respectively. Growing season was prolonged,and the average growing season was for 165 d; 3 Temperature was the key meteorological factor affecting the phenophase of Larix gmelinii,and the effects of precipitation and sunshine duration were relatively weak. Temperature,precipitation and sunshine duration affected inordinately on LC,and LF was more sensitive to sunshine duration.