省域“能源-经济-环境”(3E)系统协调度的时空差异与趋势预测

Spatial-temporal Difference Analysis and Trend Prediction of the Provincial Energy-Economy-Environment(3E)System Coordination Degree

通过构建省域3E系统发展评价指标体系与协调度评价模型,运用空间统计与空间计量方法研究了我国省域3E系统协调度的时间与空间差异、动态演化趋势,并进行了预测。研究发现:省域3E系统总体上处于良好的协调状态;省域间的空间差异较大,但具有随时间推移逐渐缩小的趋势,各经济区内部3E系统协调状态的空间差异性具有不同的演变趋势;省域3E系统协调度在全局上是空间正自相关的,局部集聚模式存在随时间的推移向"高-高"集聚模式演化的趋势。预测结果进一步证实,未来省域3E系统协调状态总体趋好、空间差异缩小,且是以"高-高"局部集聚模式为主的趋势,但空间正自相关性有所增强。

On the basis of constructing an indicator system of provincial energy-economy-environment （ 3E ） system evaluation, this paper applied spatial statistics and spatial econometric methods to do the research of spatial-temporal difference evaluation, dynamic evolutionary trend and prediction of the provincial energy-economy-environment （3E） system coordination degree in China. The research shows that, the level of the provincial 3E system coordination degree is well-level on the national average perspective. There is spatial-temporal difference among provinces and it has the evolutionary trend that narrows gradually but the spatial difference of 3E system coordination degree in every economic region shows different evolutionary trend as time goes on. It has the positive spatial correlation on the global perspective and its local clustering pattern has an evolutionary trend to the first quadrant （H, H） over time. The prediction shows that the future level of the provincial 3E system coordination degree has the trend to be good on the national average perspective and its spatial difference among provinces narrows. And, its local clustering pattern still has an evolutionary trend to the first quadrant （H, H） and the positive dependency among provinces and neighborhoods is strengthened.