土地财政与地方融资平台债务的相互作用分析——传统城镇化融资模式的理论与实证

The Interactive Mechanism between Land Finance and Local Government Debt: A Theoretical Analysis and Empirical Test

传统城镇化主要依靠＂土地财政＋地方融资平台债务＂两种模式进行融资。本文在对以土地为支撑的两种融资模式相互作用进行理论分析的基础上,以2008~2013年福建省9地市相关数据进行实证检验。研究结果表明,一方面,土地财政能够带动地方融资平台债务规模的迅速扩大,当土地财政收入提高1%,地方融资平台债务规模相应增加0.312%。另一方面,地方融资平台债务又能够显著资本化到土地价格中,从而形成地方债务规模对土地财政的正反馈效应,当地方融资平台债务规模每扩大1%,将导致土地价格提高3.008%,进而推动土地财政收入增加1.108%。但这种城镇化融资模式难以持续,必须逐步降低地方政府对土地财政的依赖,加强对地方债务的管控力度。

The purpose of this paper is to show the interactive mechanism of the two traditional urbanization financing model,which involves land finance and local government debt. The main method is making an empirical test which is based on the data of 9 cities in Fujian province from 2008 to 2013,on the basis of theoretical analysis. The results indicate that land finance could drive the scale of local government debt expand rapidly,when the land finance increases 1 percent,the local government debt will increase 0. 312 percent.While local government debt also could capitalized into land prices significantly,thus forming the positive feedback effect of local debt scale on Land Finance. When the local government debt will increase 1 percent,the price of the land incrise 3. 0008 percent,the land finace will incrise 1. 108 percent. It is concluded that this urbanization financing mode is not sustainable,and local government should reduce dependence on land finance gradually and strengthen the local debt management and control efforts.