基于碳足迹视角的湖北省蔬菜生产可持续发展探讨

The sustainable development of vegetable production system from the carbon footprint perspective in Hubei Province

在温室气体的累积排放导致全球增温趋势明显,人类生存面临挑战的气候环境条件下,研究蔬菜生产碳足迹,对于控制蔬菜生产温室气体排放,缓解气候变化与蔬菜生产可持续发展的矛盾具有积极意义。基于IPCC国家温室气体清单指南,运用过程生命周期评价法、动态评估及多元回归分析,对湖北省2003-2013年蔬菜生产系统碳足迹进行了核算。结果表明,湖北省蔬菜生产系统碳足迹由2003年的116.05万t CE增长到2013年的142.81万t CE,增加了23.06%。各生产投入品温室气体排放碳足迹排在前3位的为肥料、农药和排灌电能,分别占总排放碳足迹的58.07%、18.47%、9.03%。2003-2013年土地利用碳强度保持在0.97-1.29 t CE/hm2;单位产量碳强度从2003年的37.06 kg CE/t提高到39.91 kg CE/t,收益碳强度从2003年的0.10 kg CE/元降低到2013年的0.02 kg CE/元;碳生态效率从2003年的1.87降低到2013年的1.73。多元回归分析表明,湖北省蔬菜生产系统温室气体排放碳足迹与肥料用量、农药使用量、排灌电能三者间存在显著的线性相关,其相关性分别为0.571、0.341和0.228。根据分析结果,提出了强化科学施肥力度,提高土地规模化经营水平;推广生物防治,建设绿色防控体系;推广节水灌溉技术等可显著减少温室气体排放的策略。

In the background of the increasing concern for the global warming resulted from the cumulative greenhouse gas release, it is of great significance to study the carbon footprint of vegetable production, which can service as methods for controlling the emission of greenhouse gases and alleviating contradiction between climate change and the sustainable development of vegetable production. Based on the IPCC listed guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories, and applying the life-cycle assessment method, dynamic assessment, and multiple regression analysis, this paper examined and calculated the carbon footprint in the vegetable industry of Hubei Province from 2003 to 2013. Results showed that 1） the carbon footprint caused by vegetable production in Hubei Province increased by 23.06%, from 116.05 × 10^4 tCE in 2003 to 142.81×10^4 tCE in 2013; 2） in the vegetable production system, the top three sources for carbon footprint of greenhouse gas emission were fertilizer, pesticides, and irrigation electrical energy input, accounting for 58.07%, 18.47%, and 9.03% of the total emission carbon footprint respectively; 3） from 2003 to 2013, the trend of carbon intensity of land use was stabilized at 0.97-1.29 tCE/hm2, and the unit production carbon intensity was increased from 37.06 kgCE/t to 39.91 kgCE/t, earning carbon intensity was decreased from 0.10 kgCE per yuan to 0.02 kgCE per yuan, and carbon ecological efficiency was reduced from 1.87 to 1.73; and 4） multiple regression analysis showed that there was a significant linear correlation between the carbon footprint of total greenhouse gas emission and the usage of fertilizer, pesticides, and irrigation electrical energy in vegetable production system of Hubei, with the correlationcoefficients of 0.571, 0.341 and 0.228, respectively. Based on the analysis results, this paper provides the following suggestions： enhancing scientific application of fertilizers, raising large-scale land operation level, promoting biological prevention, and constructing greenhouse gas release prevention and control system.