人口转型与经济发展阶段的演进

Demographic Transition and the Evolution of Economic Development Stage

伴随工业化进程的一个典型化事实是人口生产由数量偏好向质量偏好的转型。正是这一人口转型,带来了传统经济和现代经济的划时代存在,也区分了工业化经济取代传统经济和现代经济超越工业化经济的工业化两个阶段。需要强调的是,没有人口转型形成的人力资本内生化机制,不可能有工业化高级阶段的推进和现代化的完成。人口转型的经验事实表明,中国经济发展已进入加速现代化进程的新阶段。

The transformation of population production from the number preference to quality preference is one typical fact with the industrialization process,it has an epoch making significance to traditional economy and modern economy,also distinguishes the two stages between the industrialized economy replacing traditional and modern economy transcending industrialized. It should be emphasized that,it is impossible to push the senior industrialization and finish the modernization without endogenous mechanism of human capital from demographic transition. Therefore,the fact shows that the Chinese economic has been entering one new stage of the accelerated modernization course.