税收负担对居民消费影响的实证分析

Positive Study on Effects of Tax Burden on Residents' Consumption

纳税人的税收负担会对居民消费产生直接或间接影响,在现行税制框架下对纳税人的税收负担进行归类.基于中国1996~2014年居民消费和居民税收负担的协整和误差修正模型的实证检验发现,从长期看,居民平均收入增长率、消费平均税率对居民消费率产生反向作用;短期内只有消费平均税率对居民消费产生较强烈的反向作用;不论是长期还是短期,居民收入平均税率对居民消费都不会产生显著影响。因此,降低间接税比重、提高直接税比重、调整消费税征税范围,加重高收入阶层的税收负担,强化税收的收入分配功能,以促进居民消费持续增长。

Tax can have direct and indirect effect on residents＇ consumption.The tax system is classified according to the burden of the taxpayer. Based on the empirical test on co-integration and error correction model of the data of residents＇ consumption rate and residents＇ tax burden over the period of 1996-2014,we find that the average income growth rate of residents and the tax average rate of consumption have a negative effect on residents＇ consumption rate in the long run, but in the short term, only the average tax rate of consumption has a strong negative effect on residents＇ consumption rate. Whether long or short the tax average rate of residents＇ income have no significant impact on the consumption of the residents. Therefore, residents＇ consumption must be increased by improving the tax burden on high-income earner and strengthen the income distribution function of the tax. The specific measures include： through reducing the proportion of indirect tax, increasing the proportion of direct tax, adjusting the scope of consumption tax.