城镇化过程中人口增长趋势转变与人口政策

Demographic Transition during the Course of Urbanization and the Population Policy

本文在城乡二元经济模型中引入了人口增长理论中数量和质量的替代关系,研究了城镇化与人口增长的互动关系。分析表明,农村劳动者转移到城镇,享受人力资本积累的外部性,这一效应形成了生育率的城乡差异,促使城镇化过程推动人口增长趋势发生转变。随着城镇化率提高,城镇化对人口增长趋势转变的贡献逐步下降。政策分析表明,我国应加快放松人口政策,消除劳动力城乡流动壁垒,通过推动城镇化过程促进人口由数量型转向质量型增长。

This paper studies the relationship between urbanization and population growth in a dual economy that incorporates the substitution relationship between quantity and quality in fertility choice. Rural labors move to urban area and take the advantage of the externality of human capital accumulation. It contributes the fertility inequality between rural area and urban area,leading to the demographic transition during the course of urbanization. As the urbanization rate increases,the effect of urbanization on the demographic transition decreases. It implies that China＇s government should further relax the constraint on the fertility rate and remove the barriers to the urbanization.