2015～2016年中国—东盟货物贸易数量分析与预测

A Quantitative Analysis on Goods Trade of China-ASEAN in 2015 and Its Prediction in 2016

在世界经济放缓、外需不振的情况下,2015年中国与东盟10国的双边贸易总额达到4721.5亿美元,同比下降1.7%,中国的贸易顺差827.9亿美元,顺差额为2014年的1.3倍。中国与东盟4个新成员国中的越南和柬埔寨的贸易继续保持增长态势,而与老挝和缅甸的贸易则出现了大幅度的下滑,与东盟6个老成员国的贸易也有增有减,中国与马来西亚贸易出现了较大幅度下降,贸易额跌破1000亿美元。数据检验分析显示,中国、日本、韩国、美国与东盟的贸易均保持稳定的协整及关联关系。2016年,中国与东盟经贸合作将具有较大持续增长的势头和优化的空间。

In 2015,as the sluggish economy and lack of external demand all over the world,the trade between China and ASEAN suffers a decline. The total trade between China and ASEAN is 472.1 billion in 2015,decreased by 1.7%;China＇s trade surplus is 82.8 billion,1.3 times of the surplus in 2014. The bilateral trades of Sino-Vietnam and Sino-Cambodia have maintained the growth,but the other two countries Laos and Burma witness a great decrease. To the 6 main ASEAN members,the trade of Sino-Malaysia has fallen below 100 billion. Basing on the statistical model,we predict that the China-ASEAN trade in 2016 will keep a sustainable growth rate and retain optimized space and trend.