中国分行业资本存量估算：1990～2014年

Estimation on Capital Stock of Sectors in China： 1990-2014

通过借鉴中国资本存量已有研究文献的成果，以细分行业差别化的折旧率估算为基础，通过分析投资结构和折旧率的关系，估算出第二、第三产业和总量的时变折旧率，系统地估算出1990～2014年总量、三次产业和细分行业的资本存量。估算结果及分析表明：由于投资结构的变化，总量、第三产业折旧率呈下降趋势，第二产业折旧率呈先上升再下降趋势；目前在我国，“过度投资”和“投资不足”并存，且“过度投资”的是资本效率比较低的行业，“投资不足”的是资本效率比较高的行业。解决“投资不足”问题的关键是打破行业垄断，尤其是行政垄断，引入市场竞争机制。

By referring to papers on Chinese capital stock, this paper estimates the dif- ferentiated depreciation rate of Sub-sectors. By analyzing the relationship between investment structure and depreciation rate, we derives time-variable depreciation rates of secondary in- dustry, tertiary industry and the whole, then systematically estimates capital stock of all sectors from 1990 to 2014. By analyzing the estimation results, we find that, due to the change of investment structure, the depreciation rates of the whole and the tertiary industry decrease. However, the depreciation rate of the secondary industry increases firstly, then decreases. We find over-investment and under-investment coexist in China, and capital effi- ciency in over-investment industry is relatively lower than in under-investment industry. The key to solve the under-investment problem is to get rid of the monopoly, especially adminis- trative monopoly, then introduce competition mechanism of market.