2016—2017年中国宏观经济预测与分析

China＇s Economic Outlook in 2016-2017： Forecast and Analysis

＂中国季度宏观经济模型（CQMM）＂课题组于2016年2月25日在北京发布了中国季度宏观经济模型第二十次预测。预测显示,中国经济增速在投资减速的压力下还将继续下行,但下降的幅度将减缓;全面通缩的风险相对较小;预计2016年GDP全年增速为6.66%,CPI上涨1.48%;2017年,GDP增长率将下探至6.58%,CPI增速略降至1.39%。模拟研究发现,维护人民币币值稳定在当前经济环境下是更有利的政策选择;做好供给侧结构性改革,关键在于清楚地认识需求结构及其基本发展变化趋势。因此,应当高度重视当前的经济持续减速;供给结构调整应当以新发展阶段背景下的需求结构转换为愿景指导,扩大投资稳增长,用新增产能调结构;实行腾笼换鸟术,通过投资置换,获得投资资金;维护人民币币值稳定,为供给结构调整创造良好的外部环境。

The＂China Quarterly Macroeconomic Model＂（ CQMM） Research Group released its 20 thforecast of the CQMM in Beijing on February 25,2016. China＇s growth is forecast to continue to slide under the pressure of investment shrinkage,but the risk of broad deflation is low. The GDP is predicted to grow by 6. 66% in 2016 and 6. 58% in 2017,and CPI is expected to be 1. 48% and 1. 39% for the two years. The Research Group simulated the macroeconomic effects of the rapid devaluation of the Renminbi,and contends that maintaining the stability of the Renminbi would be a better policy choice in the current economic environment. The Research Group also estimated the inhibiting effects on consumption due to the mismatch between the demand structure and the supply structure,and argues that identifying the development trend of the demand structure is crucial to supply- side reforms. It is suggested that we pay more attention to the slowdown of economic growth,aim to match supply structure adjustments to match the demand structure in the new development stage,expand investment to sustain economic growth,use the new production capacity to adjust the supply structure,obtain investment funds by replacing old investment projects,and maintain the stability of the Renminbi to create a better external environment for supply- side reforms.