“中国不可征服”:1938年日本社会时论舆情探析——以民国期刊译文资料为中心的考察

“China Unconquerable”: An analysis of Japanese Public Opinion in 1938 Based on Translations from the Period of the Republic of China

日本侵华战争全面爆发后,战争一时呈现出"一边倒"的态势。在日本军事进攻达到顶峰的时候,日本国内却出现了一些"中国不可征服""日本在崩溃中"等时论舆情:其一是对日本政治法西斯倾向及其可能陷入长期战争泥沼所引起的反思和担忧;其二是因担心战争前途"辽远无边"而生出悲观心态,甚至厌战情绪在侵华日军下层和日本民间也开始有所表现;其三是随着国际环境的恶化,日本经济出现的"不祥"之兆也频频见诸于美英等国的媒体报道,形成"倒逼"之势的时论舆情压力。日本时论舆情的变化,从舆论焦点看,攻陷南京是一个标志性的时间点;而1938年的徐州会战、武汉会战动摇了日本时论舆情对战争"必胜"的信念。探讨1938年间日本国内舆论舆情及其变化,有助于加深对日本军国主义者发动这场不得人心的侵略战争的认识。

After Japan＇s invasion of China erupted in full force,the war seemed to be ＂one- sided＂in favor of the Japanese,with Nanjing,Xuzhou and Hankou falling into Japanese hands in just a few months. Meanwhile,some arguments,such as＂China unconquerable＂and＂Japanese in collapse＂,appeared in the Japanese press while the whole world was witnessing the raging peak of Japanese military offensives against China. In general,Japanese public opinion showed the following characteristics：（1） some social reflections on the Japanese political fascist tendency and deep concern about the fate of the war against China;（ 2） a sense of pessimism about the bleak future of the war and the war- weariness among Japanese people and low- lever soldiers;（ 3） the great pressure from international public opinion,especially that of the United States and Britain,where the deterioration of the Japanese economy was reported in real time. It is noteworthy that,the Fall of Nanjing was the landmark event,and thereafter,Japan＇s confidence in winning the Sino- Japanese war began to shake. Exploring the changes of public opinion in Japan in 1938,to some extent,helps us gain a deeper understanding of Japan＇s aggression against China.