近50年气候驱动下东北地区玉米生产潜力时空演变分析

Spatial-temporal characteristics of maize production potential change under the background of climate change in Northeast China over the past 50 years

利用GAEZ模型,综合考虑气象、土壤、地形等因素,估算1961-2010年东北玉米生产潜力,分析50年来气候变化导致的东北玉米生产潜力时空格局演变特征。研究发现:1 1961-2010年,东北玉米平均生产潜力波动较大,整体上以每10年80 kg/hm2的线性倾向率增加;2由于气候变化,20世纪末、21世纪初玉米生产潜力变化较为频繁;3玉米生产潜力总值黑龙江省始终处于最高,近50年间增长幅度黑龙江省>吉林省>辽宁省;4近50年来,黑龙江省玉米生产潜力的波动较为剧烈,吉林省和辽宁省相对稳定;5近50年东北玉米适宜种植区有所增加,主要集中在黑龙江省西北地区,高生产潜力区域增加明显,呈现北移趋势。研究可为东北地区高效利用气候和土地资源,优化玉米生产布局提供依据。

Using GAEZ（Global Agro-Ecological Zones） model, the agro-climatic constraints,soil, topography and other factors were used to estimate maize production potential in Northeast China during 1961- 2010, and the spatial and temporal patterns of maize production potential caused by climate change in this region in the past 50 years were analyzed. Results are shown as follows：（1） The average maize production potential had a larger fluctuation in Northeast China during 1961-2010. The maize production potential increased by 80.00 kg/hm^2 per decade in Northeast China in the past 50 years;（2） Frequent changes of the maize production potential took place at the turn of the 20 th century due to the changes in climate;（3）Heilongjiang province saw the highest total production potential of maize, namely, the increasing range of maize production potential was the highest, followed by Jilin province, and Liaoning province was the lowest in the past 50 years;（4） The production potential of maize fluctuated dramatically in Heilongjiang in the years of 1961- 2010, while Jilin and Liaoning were in a relatively stable state;（5） In the past 50 years, maize suitable planting areas slightly increased in Northeast China, which was mostly found in the northwestern Heilongjiang.Meanwhile, the area with higher production potential increased significantly and showed the trend of northward movement. This study provides a theoretical basis for efficient utilization of climate and land resources and the optimization of maize production distribution.