基于生态足迹的天山北坡经济带生态承载力评价与预测

Assessment and prediction of ecological carrying capacity for the Northern Slope Economic Belt of Tianshan Mountains

生态承载力是测度区域社会经济发展对资源与环境系统压力程度的重要标尺。基于生态足迹法,构建生态承载力的评价与预测模型,分别评价和预测了2010年与2015年天山北坡经济带的生态足迹和承载力。结果表明:2010年天山北坡经济带生态足迹组分以草地和能源用地为主,约占足迹总量的93%,人均生态承载力总体高于人均生态足迹;2015年生态承载状况仍然总体盈余。但随着人口快速增长以及人均消费能力提高,2015年人均生态承载力已经低于2010年水平,城镇化对未利用地的开发形成用地总量供给的增加可能是维持生态盈余的主要原因之一。经济发展与城镇化进程对区域可持续发展造成一定压力,需要对资源环境承载能力加强监测预警。

A balanced ecological carrying capacity is important to achieve sustainable development for human enterprise. However, few studies have predicted the ecological carrying capacity after a regional development planning such as Northern Slope Economic Belt of Tianshan Mountains（NSEBTM） which is an important node area of Silk Road Economic Belt. Here, we use the ＂Ecological Footprint＂ method to assess and predict the NSEBTM＇s ecological carrying capacity of years 2010 and 2015 respectively. Results show that grassland and energy- oriented land are the main components of the ecological footprints in 2010 which takes about 93% of the total. The per capita ecological carrying capacity is higher than per capita ecological footprint which shows the study area is in a good ecological carrying status and has ecological surplus. For 2015, the ecological carrying status of NSEBTM is still in a good condition and most areas of the region have ecological surplus. However, because of the fast growth of population and consuming level of local residents, the ecological carrying capacity of 2015 is lower than that of 2010. The utilization of unused land in the urbanization could provide more land. So the region can keep an ecological surplus status. The per capita ecological footprint of urban residents in 2010 and 2015 are the 1.974 and 2.3 times respectively of the rural residents. The urbanization has a certain pressure on regional sustainability. Resources and environmental carrying capacity need to be monitored and early warned.