省区碳经济分析的CGE模型及其应用——以河南省为例

A CGE model for provincial carbon economy:A case study of Henan province

作为一种最划算的减排措施,碳税已在个别国家开始实施。编制河南省社会核算矩阵表(SAM)及其他区域SAM,构建了一个30部门的双区域的可计算一般均衡模型(CGE),分析对能源产业(煤炭开采和洗选业、石油和天然气开采业、石油炼焦核燃料加工业和燃气生产和供应业)分别征收不同价格的碳税后,河南省经济及人民生活水平的变化情况。并考虑不同类型的碳税返还情景带来的居民和企业效益,以期为通用的双区域CGE模型提供依据。模拟结果显示:碳税的征收可以有效减少CO2的排放;导致河南省增加值的下降;能源产业中煤炭开采和洗选业的国内价格受负面影响最大;其他行业中农林牧渔业受到的负面影响较大。农村居民比城市居民对碳税政策的反应更加敏感,且碳税对农村居民带来的影响为负面的。对比分析的结果表明,碳税返还给农村居民是一个合适的选择,能够使得农村居民、城镇居民和企业的利益都得到保障。

Being one of the most effective measures for carbon reduction, the carbon tax policy has been implemented in several countries. At present, a large number of studies primarily focused on the social effects of the carbon tax policy in different countries or regions like OECD countries, UK and New Zealand. While the CGE（Computable General Equilibrium）model has been employed by some scholars to explore the impact of carbon tax policy on macro-economic development in China at the national scale, there is less research exploring the influences of carbon tax on provincial economic development at the regional scale in China.Given that, through establishing a regional CGE model, this article selects Henan province as a case to analyze the economic and social effects of different carbon taxes on energy sectors.Furthermore, according to the requirements of the study, the whole China is divided into two regions（i.e. Henan province and the rest of China） in our regional CGE model, and each region has 30 sectors. This study mainly shows that implementing carbon tax in Henan province can reduce significantly the carbon emissions. More importantly, the higher the carbon tax is, the more reduction in carbon emissions. Conversely, the additive value decreased slightly.Specifically, as far as the energy sectors are concerned, coal mining and washing industry had suffered the biggest negative effects, and its price had increased a lot. As for the other sectors,the carbon tax had a negative impact on agriculture. The rural residents are more sensitive to the carbon tax compared with the urban residents. In addition, considering the impact of carbon tax on regional economic and social development, the policy simulation in terms of recycling the carbon tax to promote the carbon tax neutrality were conducted, which means that, to meet reduction targets of the carbon emission reduction in climate policy, implementing carbon tax policy should have the least influences on regional economic and social development. Two schemes（deduction on the income tax of residents or enterprises, respectively） were applied to examine its impacts. According to the situation in Henan province, in terms of residents, we reduced the income tax of rural residents. As for enterprises, we cut down the income tax of non- energy enterprises. The simulated results suggested that it would be better to recycle the carbon tax by deduction on income tax of rural residents rather than that of enterprises.