江苏省经济增长动力的时空分析

Spatial-temporal analysis of driving forces of economic growth in Jiangsu province

从经济增长的要素分析出发,分别以江苏省域及其所辖的58个县市为单元,1991-2013年为时序,运用柯布—道格拉斯生产函数、熵值法和回归分析等方法,对江苏省经济增长要素及其动力的演化过程与空间类型进行定量分析。研究发现:促进江苏经济增长的供给要素主要为资本和技术,需求要素主要为消费拉动,作用于供求方面的要素主要为产业结构、城镇发展和体制改革。1991年以来推动江苏经济增长的首要动力依次为需求拉动、开放创新、城镇引领和科技驱动。在空间上,江苏县市经济增长动力呈现南强北弱、地级市区强于县域的地域分异特征;其中,苏南县市以开放创新和科技驱动类型为主,苏中县市以开放创新和产业升级类型为主,苏北县市以需求拉动和产业升级类型为主。

Taking each of the 58 counties and cities of Jiangsu province as a unit, spatial types and evolutionary process of economy- driven factors and driving forces of economic growth from 1991 to 2013 are quantitatively analyzed by utilizing methods such as Cobb- Douglas production function, entropy value and regression analysis. The main conclusions are as follows：（1） The economy- driven factors have interacted each other in a complicated way.Capital and technology are two main supply factors promoting the economic growth. In terms of demand factors, economic growth driven by consumer demand is increasing, while that driven by investment and export demands are weakening. Considering the factors influencing supply and demand, industrial structure, urban development and structural reform played key roles in the promotion of economic growth. These factors interact and influence each other,leading to the continuous increase in economy and accelerating the economic transformation in this province.（2） The driving forces of economic growth have obviously changed in different phases. The economic growth is the process of profound changes of its driving forces as well.Economic growth in different phases corresponds to different driving forces.（3） The driving forces of economic growth vary clearly in different regions. Taking the driving forces of economic growth in each county or city into account, those in the southern part of Jiangsu are stronger than those in the northern part, and those in the prefecture- level cities stronger than those in rural counties. The driving forces of economic growth in southern Jiangsu surrounded by Lake Taihu, in central Jiangsu along the Yangtze River, and in northern Jiangsu along the East Longhai Railway are all stronger than those in other counties and cities of the same regions. In respect of spatial types of the driving forces of economic growth, industrial upgrading is the most important type. However, the regional variations are remarkable. The main driving forces in southern Jiangsu are innovation- and technology-oriented, while those in central and northern Jiangsu are featured by industrial upgrading and innovation, and industrial upgrading and demands, respectively.