公共福利支出、失业率与经济增长

Public Welfare Spending,Unemployment Rate and Economic Growth

应用Hanson门槛面板模型,考察1990—2014年间40个国家的政府公共福利支出与经济增长的关系。并以各国失业率作为门槛变量,将样本划分为三个梯队。研究结果发现在不同的经济发展阶段,政府公共福利支出对经济增长的影响效果依赖于各国失业率是否超过某一特定门槛值而不同:在低失业率的国家中,政府公共福利支出会提升经济增长,二者存在显著的正向关系,但在中、高失业率的国家中,二者的关系即变为不显著。

With the application of Hanson（ 1999） threshold panel model,this paper explores the mechanism of government public welfare spending and economic growth in 40 countries from 1990 to 2014.In this paper,the national unemployment was adopted as a threshold variable,the sample is divided into three echelons.We found that： In the different stages of economic development,the effect of the government＇ s public welfare expenditures on economic growth depends on the countries unemployment rate exceeding a certain threshold value.With a low unemployment rate in the country,the government＇s public welfare expenditures will contribute to economic growth.Both the existence of a significant positive correlation,in contrast with a unemployment rate in the country,and the correlation between the two are not significant.