契约质量与“一带一路”国家产业链提升研究

Contract Quality and the Industrial Chain Upgrading of the Countries along “One Belt One Road”

以“一带一路”国家为研究对象，提出契约质量影响产业链提升的假说。借鉴Koopman等的方法，利用1995～2011年WIOD数据库中的投入产出表数据，测算“一带一路”代表性国家分行业的出口国内增加值的比例，以契约质量表征一个国家的制度质量，运用固定效应模型和系统CMM方法进行实证研究。计量结果表明，契约质量对出口国内增加值具有显著的正向影响，与此同时，契约质量对资源密集型产业影响不显著，对劳动密集型、资本密集型和技术密集型制造业的影响依次增强。在分区域的检验中，契约质量对发达地区的出口国内增加值影响较大。据此，“一带一路”沿线国家要注重制度质量的提升。尤其是契约质量，从而在全球分工的背景下，取得产业链中的有利位置。实现由低附加值端向高附加值端的攀升。

This paper takes the countries along ＂One Belt One Road＂ as the object of study, and puts forward the hypothesis that contract quality influences industrial chain upgrading. According to Koopman （2012）, it uses the 1995-2011 data in WIOD Input- Output table to estimate 31 countries＇ domestic value added in export, and then uses contract quality to replace institutional quality and system GMM to do an empirical test. The results show that contract quality has a significantly positive effect on the domestic added value of export, but at the same time, it has no significant impact on resource industries. Contract quality＇s influence on labor-intensive industry, capital-intensive industry and technology-intensive industry is gradual. In regional tests, contract quality has a large influence on developed areas. Accordingly, the countries along ＂One Belt One Road＂ should pay attention to institutional quality upgrading, especially contract quality, and under the background of global division, in order to achieve a good position on industry chain and rise from the low value-added to the high value-added.