中国省域林业经济发展影响因素的空间面板计量经济分析

Spatial Panel Econometric Analysis on Forestry Economic Factors of Every Province in China

以我国2000～2013年间31个省域有关林业经济发展的面板数据为对象,采用Moran＇s I指数和空间面板计量模型对我国林业经济发展的空间关系及其影响因素进行分析。结果显示：各年Moran＇s I指数值基本稳定在0.3,空间滞后面板模型中空间自回归系数ρ为0.169,通过了1%显著性水平检验,且其他各因素系数在统计上均高度显著。表明我国省域林业经济发展存在较强的空间依赖性;林业市场潜力、林业经济质量和林业人口资本等因素对我国各省域林业经济发展起着主要推动作用;林业生态贡献对林业经济发展的作用不容忽视;而林业科技潜能目前对我国林业经济增长贡献率相对较低。

Based on the penal data about forestry economic development from 2000 to 2013 among 31 provinces of China, the spatial relationship of Chinese forestry economic development and its influence factors were analyzed by using index and the spatial panel econometric models. The results show that the index values are almost around 0.3, and the spatial autoregressive coefficient of spatial lag panel data model is 0.169 which through the test in 1% significance level. And the coefficients of other factors are highly significant in statistics. The results indicate that there is a strong spatial dependence among China＇s provincial forestry economic development. And the forestry market potential, the quality of forestry economy and the forestry population capital play a major role to promote the development of China＇s provincial forestry economy. The role of forestry ecological contribution to forestry economic development shouldn＇t be ignored either. While the contribution rate of the forestry technology potential to China＇s forestry economic growth is relatively low now.