全球整车及其零部件贸易格局演化特征

Globalization and Regionalization of Complete Auto's and Auto Parts' Trade

以汽车产业为例,采用中心性、E-I指数和核心-边缘模型等网络分析方法,分析2003~2013年间,全球整车及零部件贸易在全球化和区域化力量共同作用下的演化特征。结果显示：1整车贸易和零部件贸易的全球化程度和区域化程度均有所提高,但贸易全球化特征相对更明显;2整车贸易网络核心一直为德、日、美3国,零部件贸易网络核心则由美、日变为中、德;亚洲汽车零部件贸易网络以中国为核心迅速发展,欧洲汽车零部件贸易网络重心向东欧和南欧转移明显;3发动机系统组件贸易向以德国为首的欧洲国家集中,电子电器组件贸易向以中国为中心的东亚地区集中,附加值低的轮胎和内胎组件贸易向中国、印度、巴西等新兴市场分散。

Under the background of globalization and regionalization, the world＇s trade pattern has altered distinctly. Defining trade globalization as the size and complexity of trade network, and regionalization as specific types of linkages betweencountries in the same region, this article analyzes complete auto＇s and auto parts＇ trade patterns in 2003-2013, and examines whether they become globalized or regionalized using the social network approach. The centrality, E-I index and core-periphery model of the trade network are calculated, and the results are as follows： firstly, exports of auto parts concentrate in emerging markets of east Asia and eastern Europe with the globalization of automobile production, while the exports of complete auto don＇t follow that trend. The trade networks of complete auto and auto parts both become denser, which means they turn more global; and the interregional ties of their trade network become stronger, implying more regionalized trade;however, the E-I index shows that globalization seems to be dominating the trade of complete auto and auto parts, while the regionalization process is relatively unconspicuous. Secondly, the trade networks of complete auto and auto parts are characterized by the core-periphery structure. During the research period, Germany, Japan and United States are always the core of complete auto trade network. Germany and Japan mainly play the role of exporters; in contrast, United States participates as importer. China, India, Thailand, South Africa and other emerging markets are in the periphery position. At the same time, the nucleus of auto parts trade network changed from United States and Japan into China and Germany. Auto parts＇ trade grows rapidly among Asian countries, and China becomes the core exporter. In Europe, the gravity of auto parts trade network moves from west to east. Thirdly, high technology-intensive parts of cars are less global than resource-intensive parts. East Asia becomes the center of electrical and electric components trade as global electronic industry transfers to east Asia. China replaces United States as the organizer of electrical and electric components trade network. As for the pivotal components of auto mobile, engine-parts are traded among fewer countries than other parts. The core of engine-parts＇ trade network used to include United States, Japan and Germany in 2003; Unites States fades out while Germany enhances its control. During the same period, the position of central and east European countries raise in European regional engine-parts＇ trade network. In addition, the trade network of tires and tubes which have the lowest added valueis organized in a more globalized way, dispersing to China, India, Brazil and other emerging countries. China displaces the core position of Japan in the regional trade network of Asia.