电动汽车充电负荷预测方法综述

Overview of the Charging Load Forecasting Methods of Plug-in Electric Vehicles

文章简述了电动汽车充电负荷预测的概念和意义,分析了影响电动汽车充电负荷预测的因素,并将目前的预测方法分为基于电力系统短期负荷预测方法的电动汽车充电负荷预测、蒙特卡洛模拟法以及其他新型电动汽车充电负荷预测方法,并综述分析了各种预测方法的原理及应用。最后提出在未来预测工作中,应准确估计已有预测模型中的参数,并积极探索新的预测模型。

In this paper, the concept and meaning of charging load forecasting of plug-in electric vehicles are given. The factors affecting the precision of charging load forecasting of plug-in electric vehicles are discussed. The current charging load forecasting methods of plug-in electric vehicles are divided into the electric power system shortterm load forecasting method, Monte Carlo simulation and other new load forecasting methods. The principles and applications of these prediction methods are summarized and analyzed. Finally, this paper presents that accurately estimating parameters of the existing prediction models and actively exploring new prediction model are the keys to the predicting work in the future.