基于文献统计方法的多芯片模块技术评价研究

Evaluation Research of Chip Assembly Technology Based on Statistical Methods of Literature

在技术成熟度的评价过程中,现有的TRL(技术成熟度等级)评价方法、TRIZ(发现并解决问题的理论)评价法以及性能预测法均存在有效数据缺乏和评价结果不够精确等不足。采用了基于文献统计的方法,探索技术成熟度的评价方法及实施流程。研究技术指标的构建方法,结合logistic regression(逻辑回归)技术,构建技术发展模型,以保证数据的有效性和拟合结果的准确性。针对二维、三维及系统级多芯片模块3种技术,开展方法的应用研究。研究结果表明,基于文献统计方法的多芯片模块技术的评价结果能合理地解释实际情况下技术的发展程度,验证了文章提出方法的可行性。

In the evaluation process of technology maturity, the common problems of existing TRL evaluation method,TRIZ theory based evaluation and the performance prediction methodare lacking of valid data and the imprecision of evaluation results.A method based on literature statistical was proposed in this paper to explore the technology maturity and implementation process. Meanwhile the construction method of technical indicators was studied combined with logistic regression technique to build technological development model in order to ensure the validity and accuracy of data fitting results.For three chip assembly technologies called 2D-MCM（Two dimensional Multi-Chip Module）, 3D-MCM（Three dimensional Multi-Chip Module） and SIP（System-in-Package）,the application research of methods was proposed.The results indicate that the chip assembly technology evaluation consequence based on statistical method is consistent with the actual situation and the feasibility of the proposed method of the article is verified.